Keywords
Distanciamiento social
Modelo estadístico Influenza A virus, H1N1 subtype
Social isolation
Models statistical
How to Cite
Abstract
Background: influenza by the new A H1N1/09 virus is an emerging disease characterized by high transmissibility, rapid capacity to spread, high pandemic potential and seriousness of its complications, particularly in population with risk factors already established. The countries have been preparing for the impact of mitigation in case of appearance of a new pandemic through the adoption of different strategies of which the social distancing is one of the most used strategies. Social distancing strategies have lasted in an arbitrary manner between 7 and 21 days, and have a potential impact on the spread of the epidemic virus and at the same time an economic impact on individuals, the productive sector or insurers, depending on the time of license and various forms of recruitment. In the literature there are different models that show the impact generated by this measure in different populations but not in our population. Methods: our study was a discret events simulation using the Arena Professional Edition Software Version 11, starting from the existence of a first case infected with the virus, taking as susceptible population the total population of Bogota, to compare 3 strategies of social distancing in workers with wages: only hygiene measures in the work site (washing hands and mask); unable to work for 3 days; and unable to work for 7 days. We calculated the costs of productivity lost with each of the strategies through the approach of human capital. Results: the most cost-effective strategy for our population was to give incapacity during three days. For this strategy we calculated a total of 1,862,331 of infected patients and a mortality rate of 1.0%, the lost of productivity calculated was 6 days, and the cost was 155 dollars patient. Conclusion: the strategy of social distancing more cost-effective in preventing the spread of the virus influenza A H1N1 in the Colombian population is unable to work for 3 days
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